The Australia Migration Model (TAMM)

Charts

Migration data in context.

These charts put the simulator's main inputs in context: NOM history, permanent program outcomes, citizenship conferrals, skilled occupation mix, housing-relevant ANZSCO trade groups, and the export-income base behind international education.

NOM history

NOM is highly sensitive to border settings, labour demand, and student flows.

The chart uses ABS financial-year data from 2004-05 to 2024-25. The orange line shows the number of people added through NOM. The blue line shows that flow as a share of Australia's estimated resident population.

NOM and NOM share of resident population

ABS annual financial years ending 30 June. Share uses Estimated Resident Population at 30 June as the denominator, not an annual citizen-count series.

NOM, people NOM / resident population
Net overseas migration and NOM share of resident population, 2004-05 to 2024-25 NOM peaked at 538,341 people in 2022-23, fell negative in 2020-21, and was 305,569 people in 2024-25. -100k 0 200k 400k 600k -0.5% 0% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% NOM, people NOM / resident population 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2016-17 2020-21 2024-25 2004-05: NOM 123,763; share 0.61% 2005-06: NOM 146,753; share 0.72% 2006-07: NOM 232,796; share 1.12% 2007-08: NOM 277,338; share 1.31% 2008-09: NOM 299,866; share 1.38% 2009-10: NOM 196,058; share 0.89% 2010-11: NOM 180,372; share 0.81% 2011-12: NOM 231,947; share 1.02% 2012-13: NOM 230,329; share 1.00% 2013-14: NOM 187,778; share 0.80% 2014-15: NOM 184,033; share 0.77% 2015-16: NOM 206,233; share 0.85% 2016-17: NOM 263,351; share 1.07% 2017-18: NOM 238,224; share 0.95% 2018-19: NOM 241,338; share 0.95% 2019-20: NOM 192,703; share 0.75% 2020-21: NOM -84,930; share -0.33% 2021-22: NOM 207,912; share 0.80% 2022-23: NOM 538,341; share 2.02% 2023-24: NOM 429,162; share 1.58% 2024-25: NOM 305,569; share 1.11%
Peak 538,341 2022-23; 2.02% of residents
COVID trough -84,930 2020-21; -0.33% of residents
Latest 305,569 2024-25; 1.11% of residents

Permanent residents and citizenship

Permanent residence is usually the step before citizenship.

The permanent program admits people for long-term settlement. Citizenship conferrals show how many people formally became Australian citizens in a given year. The two flows are connected over time, but they should not be expected to match in the same financial year.

Permanent program outcomes vs citizenship conferrals

The chart compares annual permanent program outcomes with citizenship conferrals. Conferrals usually reflect migration decisions made years earlier, after people meet residence and eligibility requirements.

Permanent program outcome Citizenship conferrals
Permanent Migration Program outcomes compared with citizenship conferrals In 2024-25, the permanent program outcome was 185,001 and citizenship conferrals were 165,193. 0 100k 200k 300k People per year 2015-16: permanent program 189,770 2015-16: citizenship conferrals 133,126 2015-16 2016-17: permanent program 183,608 2016-17: citizenship conferrals 137,750 2017-18: permanent program 162,417 2017-18: citizenship conferrals 80,649 2017-18 2018-19: permanent program 160,323 2018-19: citizenship conferrals 127,674 2019-20: permanent program 140,366 2019-20: citizenship conferrals 204,817 2019-20 2020-21: permanent program 160,052 2020-21: citizenship conferrals 140,748 2021-22: permanent program 143,556 2021-22: citizenship conferrals 167,232 2021-22 2022-23: permanent program 195,004 2022-23: citizenship conferrals 192,947 2023-24: permanent program 190,000 2023-24: citizenship conferrals 192,242 2023-24 2024-25: permanent program 185,001 2024-25: citizenship conferrals 165,193 2024-25
Latest permanent program 185,001 2024-25; Migration Program outcome
Latest citizenship conferrals 165,193 2024-25; by conferral
Same-year difference 19,808 More permanent outcomes than conferrals. Not a cohort gap.

Skilled occupation mix

The skilled stream is mostly professional, but the trade slice is real.

This uses 2024-25 Home Affairs occupation data for Skill-stream primary applicants. It is an analytical simplification, not an official blue-collar or STEM taxonomy.

Skill-stream primary applicants by occupation type

Home Affairs Permanent Migration Program outcome snapshot. Occupation detail is for Skill-stream primary applicants only. The wider Skill-stream outcome was 132,148 places including partners and dependants.

White-collar Blue-collar / trade Care / service STEM-linked Non-STEM / mixed Not specified

Blue-collar vs white-collar lens

A practical split by ANZSCO major group, with care/service and not-specified records kept separate.

60,474
White-collar / professional 72.2% 43,670 primary applicants. Managers, professionals, clerical/admin workers, and sales workers.
Blue-collar / trade 19.8% 12,000 primary applicants. Technicians and trades workers, machinery operators and drivers, and labourers.
Care / service 3.5% 2,091 primary applicants. Community and personal service workers, including care, police, and support roles.
Not specified 4.5% 2,713 primary applicants. Records where occupation was not specified in the source data.

STEM-linked vs non-STEM lens

A broad classification. Health and technical trades are included because they are central to skilled migration even though they do not fit a narrow STEM definition neatly.

60,474
STEM-linked, health and technical 54.2% 32,805 primary applicants. Broadly classified ICT, engineering, science, health, architecture/surveying, and technical trades.
Non-STEM or mixed 41.3% 24,956 primary applicants. Occupation groups outside that broad technical definition, including chefs, accountants, teachers, managers, and mixed service roles.
Not specified 4.5% 2,713 primary applicants. Records where occupation was not specified in the source data.
Primary applicant records 60,474 The occupation dataset excludes secondary applicants.
Full Skill-stream outcome 132,148 Includes primary applicants plus partners and dependants.
White-collar / professional 43,670 About 72% of skilled primary applicants.
Blue-collar / trade 12,000 About 20% of skilled primary applicants.
STEM-linked, health and technical 32,805 About 54% under the broad classification used here.

Building trades

The housing-relevant skilled pipeline is small.

This chart uses four-digit ANZSCO unit groups: broad occupation families such as electricians, plumbers, carpenters and joiners, and structural steel and welding trades. That is the cleaner basis for policy modelling than individual job-title codes.

Housing-relevant ANZSCO unit groups in the skilled program

Home Affairs Permanent Migration Program outcome snapshot. Counts are 2024-25 Skill-stream primary applicants only.

Site construction Building services Fabrication and fitters
Unit-group base 2,596 4.3% of Skill-stream primary applicants.
Site construction 1,263 Carpenter, joiner, and glazier roles most directly tied to housing-site work.
Building services 624 Electrical, plumbing, HVAC, and regulated building-systems work.
Fabrication and fitters 709 Welding, metal fabrication, and mechanical fitting that support construction supply chains.

Education exports

Education exports are sector income, not spend by each new arrival.

The baseline uses total 2024-25 export income divided by the active student stock. That gives an annual reference value of about $97k per active international student.

International education export income breakdown

Department of Education 2024-25 financial-year export income. The split separates tuition fees from goods and services spending.

Goods and services Tuition fees Source rounding