Active student stock
The approximate number of international students studying in Australia at a point in time.
Education export income is compared with the active student stock, not just new arrivals in one year.Glossary
Definitions the model depends on.
Migration debates often blur permanent places, temporary flows, student arrivals, citizenship, and population change. These definitions keep the simulator's terms precise.
ANZSCO
The Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations, used to group jobs for statistical and migration reporting.
The occupation charts use ANZSCO groups because that is how Home Affairs publishes skilled migration occupation data.Australian citizen
A person who holds Australian citizenship by birth, descent, adoption, or conferral.
Citizenship is not the same as permanent residence. The charts compare permanent outcomes and citizenship conferrals because many permanent residents later become citizens.Australian-born resident
A person usually resident in Australia whose country of birth is Australia.
This is a country-of-birth measure, not a citizenship measure. Some Australian citizens are overseas-born, and some Australian-born residents may not be citizens.Balance of payments
The statistical system that records economic transactions between Australian residents and non-residents.
International student spending can be counted as an export even when the spending happens inside Australia, because the buyer is treated as a non-resident.Building-trades capacity
The model's estimate of modest housing-capacity relief from increasing housing-relevant trade migration.
It avoids treating migration only as demand. A better occupational mix can also expand the construction workforce, but the effect is approximate and should not be read as a direct homes-per-migrant productivity claim.Building-trades migration multiple
A simulator lever that raises housing-relevant building-trades skilled-primary applicants above the current ANZSCO unit-group outcome.
The current base is about 2,600 building-trades primary applicants, or 4.3% of skilled-primary applicants. A 2.0x setting is about 5,200 applicants, or 8.6%, and the simulator treats only the extra intake as limited capacity relief.Capital-city concentration
The share of overseas migration settling in major capital cities rather than regional areas or smaller cities.
Migration can be economically useful nationally while still intensifying pressure in specific rental markets, transport systems, and service networks.Citizenship conferral
The grant of Australian citizenship to a person who applies and is approved, usually after a period of permanent residence and meeting eligibility requirements. The annual count can include adults and children.
Conferrals help show how permanent residence turns into formal citizenship over time, but they are a flow, not a total citizen-stock count. Citizen stock also changes with births, deaths, and residents moving overseas or returning.Cohort
A group of people considered together because they entered a program, population, or dataset in the same period.
In this simulator, the permanent cohort means one annual permanent-program intake. The model multiplies the weighted per-migrant fiscal value by that cohort size.Cultural effects of migration
The ways migration changes community life, language, identity, social networks, institutions, and everyday cultural exchange.
TAMM acknowledges these effects but does not score them. The simulator focuses on measurable economic and capacity channels so its assumptions remain visible and contestable.Dividend stack
The model's combined benefit score from fiscal mix, GDP lift, education exports, and skills use.
The balance score rises when this stack is stronger than the pressure stack.Education exports
The annual value Australia records from international education activity, including tuition fees and education-related goods and services spending by students treated as non-residents in balance-of-payments statistics.
TAMM treats this as total sector value across the active student stock, not as revenue generated only by new arrivals in that year.Estimated Resident Population
ERPThe official ABS estimate of people usually resident in Australia at a point in time, regardless of citizenship.
The historical chart uses ERP as the denominator for NOM share because it is available annually and aligns with ABS population accounting. It is not a citizen-only denominator.Estimated Unique Arrivals
A TAMM presentation label for the adjusted people estimate in the Europe building-trades page. It reduces raw pathway activity so the same migration journey is less likely to be counted twice.
Temporary skilled grants and later onshore permanent outcomes can involve the same person. The adjusted estimate is the cleaner people-count signal; Raw Total is the activity signal.Family stream
The part of the Permanent Migration Program for partner, parent, child, and other family visas.
The simulator keeps Family stream places in the fiscal mix but does not try to price their social and community value.First-entry date
A date specified in visa grant material by which an offshore visa holder must usually make their first entry to Australia. For many offshore permanent visas, Home Affairs describes this date as generally 12 months from visa grant.
Offshore permanent visas do not always translate into immediate arrivals. The lag between grant and first entry can shift when housing and settlement pressure appears.Fiscal net present value
Fiscal NPVAn estimate of lifetime budget contribution converted into today's dollars. TAMM weights Treasury-style lifetime fiscal values by the skilled-primary, skilled-secondary, and family shares, then multiplies by permanent places.
It helps separate short-term service pressure from long-run tax and spending effects. It is a cohort-level estimate, not a cash receipt in the Budget year.GDP net present value
GDP NPVA present-value estimate of the long-run economic output associated with the permanent cohort.
The simulator uses it as one part of the dividend stack, separate from the fiscal budget effect.Goods and services spending
Education-related spending outside tuition, such as living costs and other goods and services bought by international students.
This is why education exports are an economy-wide sector value rather than a simple per-new-student tuition calculation.Household size assumption
The simplified divisor used to convert people into estimated dwelling demand. The current model uses 2.5 people per dwelling.
Changing this assumption would move the housing-pressure result. It is a transparent simplification, not a claim about every migrant household.Housing Accord run rate
The annualised home-building pace implied by Australia's national housing targets and recent completions data.
The same NOM setting looks very different if the country is completing 175k homes a year versus running closer to 240k.Housing completions
New homes completed in a year, used here as the housing-capacity side of the migration dwelling-demand comparison.
The same migration flow feels very different when home-building is weak versus when completions are close to the national target pace.International student
A student from overseas studying with an Australian education provider, usually on a student visa.
Student headcounts, enrolments, student visa holders, and new student arrivals are related but not identical. TAMM keeps those concepts separate because they affect education exports and housing pressure differently.Migrant arrival
An ABS migration arrival is someone who enters Australia and is counted as joining the usually resident population under the 12/16-month rule.
It is not the same as every border crossing. Migrant arrivals are the gross inflow used before migrant departures are subtracted to calculate NOM.Migrant departure
An ABS migration departure is someone who leaves Australia for long enough to be counted as leaving the usually resident population under the 12/16-month rule.
Departures can include citizens, permanent residents, and temporary residents. NOM nets these departures against migrant arrivals.Migration balance score
A 0-100 index comparing the dividend stack with the pressure stack. Higher is better.
The letter is an A-E rating: A is the strongest balance and E means the settings are overheating.Migration dwelling demand
An estimate of how many dwellings are needed to house a migration flow, calculated here by dividing NOM by an assumed household size.
It translates population movement into the housing-capacity question households, voters, and cities experience.Migration sex ratio
The number of male migrants per 100 female migrants in a given flow or population group.
Overall migration can look gender-balanced while particular visa streams, occupations, regions, or source-country groups skew strongly male or female. Sex ratio is a context signal, not a policy answer by itself.Multistate migration model
A model that separates the population into statuses, such as citizens, permanent residents, students, other temporary visa holders, and New Zealand citizens, then models movements between those statuses.
It captures feedback that a simple NOM model misses. For example, student arrivals can later affect other temporary visa stock, permanent residence outcomes, and citizenship flows.Net overseas migration
NOMThe net gain or loss of population through international migration. ABS measures it using the 12/16-month rule: people count when they are in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, less people who leave Australia for 12 months or more.
NOM is broader than the permanent migration program. It can include temporary visa holders who stay long enough, but short tourist visits do not count.NOM share of population
Net Overseas Migration divided by the Estimated Resident Population for the same period, expressed as a percentage.
It is a useful pressure signal because 300,000 people means something different in a country of 10 million than in a country of nearly 28 million. It is not the same as total population growth, which also includes natural increase.Non-citizen permanent resident
A person who is usually resident in Australia, does not hold Australian citizenship, and holds a permanent visa.
This group includes people who have lived in Australia for decades and people who became permanent residents recently. It should not be confused with new permanent visas granted in a single year.Non-citizen temporary resident
A non-citizen in Australia on a temporary visa or temporary residence status, including groups such as students, temporary skilled workers, visitors, working holiday makers, bridging visa holders, and New Zealand Special Category visa holders.
Temporary visa stock is a point-in-time count. It is related to NOM, but it is not the same thing as annual net overseas migration.Occupation unit group
A four-digit ANZSCO occupation grouping, such as 2544 Registered Nurses or 2613 Software and Applications Programmers.
Unit groups are detailed enough to show the skilled program's occupation mix, while still being published in stable official tables. In the building-trades chart they work like an occupation-family code.Offshore permanent outcome
A permanent Migration Program outcome where the applicant was outside Australia at the time of application.
Offshore outcomes are closer to the intuitive idea of waiting overseas for permanent residence, but they are still a location-at-application measure. They do not prove the person never had an earlier Australian visa history.Onshore permanent outcome
A permanent Migration Program outcome where the applicant was in Australia at the time of application.
Onshore outcomes are a useful proxy for people already living in Australia before PR, but they are not a complete map of every visa step the person took.Permanent Migration Program
The annual planning level for permanent visas across Skill, Family, and smaller Special Eligibility categories.
Permanent places shape long-run workforce and fiscal outcomes. They are important, but they are only one part of total migration flows.Permanent resident
PRA non-citizen who holds a permanent visa and can usually live, work, and study in Australia indefinitely, subject to visa and travel-facility rules.
Permanent residents are part of Australia's resident population and most can later apply for citizenship if they meet eligibility requirements.Population-at-risk
The group of people who could experience a particular event, such as leaving Australia, switching visa status, or becoming permanent residents.
Visa-transition models use the relevant population-at-risk as the denominator. A larger temporary stock can produce more departures or more onshore permanent applications even if policy settings stay unchanged.Pressure stack
The model's combined pressure score from housing demand, capital-city load, student arrivals, and total migration volume.
The balance score falls when pressure grows faster than the measurable benefits.Raw Total
On the Europe building-trades page, the unadjusted pathway-activity count: temporary skilled primary grants plus offshore permanent residence outcomes.
It is not a clean people count and it is not temporary grants plus all PR outcomes. It is useful for scale, but the page leads with Estimated Unique Arrivals for the adjusted people estimate.Resident Return visa
RRVA visa pathway that can allow an Australian permanent resident outside Australia to return as a permanent resident when their original travel facility is no longer valid.
Permanent residence and citizenship are not identical. Citizens have an automatic right to enter Australia; permanent residents need a valid travel facility or RRV for re-entry from overseas.Skill stream
Permanent migration places aimed at applicants selected for labour-market, business, investment, regional, or employer-sponsored reasons.
The skill stream is where migration policy most directly tries to lift productivity, tax revenue, and workforce capacity.Skilled-primary applicant
The main applicant in a skilled visa case, as distinct from partners or dependants who are included as secondary applicants.
Treasury modelling assigns very different lifetime fiscal and GDP impacts to primary skilled migrants, secondary skilled migrants, and family-stream migrants.Skilled-primary share
The share of the permanent cohort treated as main skilled applicants rather than secondary skilled applicants or Family stream migrants.
Raising this share lifts the model's fiscal and GDP dividend because Treasury-style estimates are strongest for skilled-primary migrants.Skilled-secondary applicant
A partner or dependant included in a skilled visa case, rather than the main applicant selected for their occupation or skills.
Secondary applicants can be economically important, but the model assigns them a different average fiscal and GDP profile from skilled-primary applicants.Skills recognition lag
The time it takes for a migrant's overseas qualification, licence, or occupation-specific experience to be recognised and used in Australia.
Shorter recognition lags mean the same migration intake can contribute sooner, especially in licensed trades, health, engineering, and technical roles.Snapshot date
The point in time at which a stock count is measured.
A snapshot can be very different from an annual flow. Student visa holders, working holiday makers, and temporary residents are usually reported as stock counts.Source-region concentration
A pattern where a large share of migration comes from a small number of origin countries or regions.
Australia's multicultural model is stronger when migration remains broad-based and institutions can absorb change. Very concentrated flows can make integration harder and weaken public consent even when the economic case is positive.Student arrivals pressure
The simulator's proxy for new temporary-student arrivals that may add demand for housing, services, and education capacity.
It is not the same as the total number of international students in Australia. It is a flow lever used to stress-test pressure.Student visa holder
A person holding a visa that permits study in Australia, usually subclass 500 for the main student visa.
Student visa holders can affect NOM if their actual stay meets the usual-residence rule, but the visa category alone does not determine NOM.Temporary Graduate visa
A post-study temporary visa category for eligible former international students who have completed Australian study and are allowed to remain, work, and gain experience for a further period.
The temporary graduate stock is a useful pathway signal because many holders are no longer just studying and may be testing whether they can stay longer. It is still a visa stock, not proof that every holder intends to become a permanent resident.Temporary skilled primary grant
A temporary skilled visa grant to the main applicant selected for a nominated occupation, excluding partners and dependants in the same case.
Occupation charts usually need primary grants because secondary applicants do not have their own nominated occupation in the same way.Temporary skilled visa
A temporary work visa pathway for skilled workers sponsored or nominated for an occupation, historically including subclass 457 and later temporary skilled programs.
Temporary skilled stock and grants show employer demand before, and sometimes instead of, permanent residence. They are separate from the permanent Skill stream.Temporary visa
A visa that allows a person to stay in Australia for a limited purpose or period, such as study, temporary work, visitor travel, working holiday activity, or bridging status.
Temporary visas do not automatically equal NOM. They affect NOM only when the person's actual stay meets the 12/16-month usual-residence rule.Temporary-to-permanent pathway
A migration path where a person first lives in Australia on one or more temporary visas before later becoming a permanent resident.
Many permanent outcomes are not brand-new arrivals. They are the end of a multi-year pathway through student, graduate, temporary skilled, bridging, or other visas.Tuition fees
The part of international education export income paid for education services such as courses and enrolments.
The baseline education export figure separates tuition from goods and services so the total is not mistaken for direct tuition revenue only.Usual residence
The population concept behind NOM and ERP: where a person is counted as usually living for statistical purposes.
Migration statistics are not just border-crossing statistics. They depend on whether a person becomes part of, or leaves, the usually resident population.Visa stock
A point-in-time count of visa holders present in Australia on a given snapshot date.
Stock data answers 'how many are here now?' Flow data answers 'how many arrived, left, or changed status over a period?' Mixing the two is a common source of confusion.Visa transition
A change from one visa or citizenship status to another while the person is in Australia, such as student visa to graduate visa, temporary skilled visa to permanent residence, or permanent residence to citizenship.
Transitions are one reason permanent-program outcomes, temporary visa stock, and NOM can move differently from one another.Visitor or tourist movement
Short-term travel to Australia for tourism, visiting family, or business visitor purposes.
Tourists are usually out of NOM because short visits do not meet the 12/16-month residence rule. The simulator treats NOM as a residence-flow measure, not a border-crossing count.Working Holiday Maker
WHMA temporary visa holder in the Working Holiday Maker program, mainly subclass 417 or 462.
WHM numbers are usually reported as visa stock at a snapshot date. They can contribute to labour supply, especially in seasonal and regional work, but only count in NOM if their stay meets the usual-residence rule.