Active student stock
The approximate number of international students studying in Australia at a point in time.
Education export income is compared with the active student stock, not just new arrivals in one year.Glossary
Definitions the model depends on.
Migration debates often blur permanent places, temporary flows, student arrivals, citizenship, and population change. These definitions keep the simulator's terms precise.
ANZSCO
The Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations, used to group jobs for statistical and migration reporting.
The occupation charts use ANZSCO groups because that is how Home Affairs publishes skilled migration occupation data.Australian citizen
A person who holds Australian citizenship by birth, descent, adoption, or conferral.
Citizenship is not the same as permanent residence. The charts compare permanent outcomes and citizenship conferrals because many permanent residents later become citizens.Building-trades capacity
The model's estimate of additional effective annual home-building capacity from increasing housing-relevant trade migration.
It avoids treating migration only as demand. A better occupational mix can also expand the construction workforce, although the boost is deliberately approximate.Building-trades migration multiple
A simulator lever that raises housing-relevant building-trades skilled-primary applicants above the current ANZSCO unit-group outcome.
The current base is about 2,600 building-trades primary applicants, or 4.3% of skilled-primary applicants. A 2.0x setting is about 5,200 applicants, or 8.6%, and the simulator treats only the extra intake as added housing capacity.Capital-city concentration
The share of overseas migration settling in major capital cities rather than regional areas or smaller cities.
Migration can be economically useful nationally while still intensifying pressure in specific rental markets, transport systems, and service networks.Citizenship conferral
The grant of Australian citizenship to a person who applies and is approved, usually after a period of permanent residence and meeting eligibility requirements. The annual count can include adults and children.
Conferrals help show how permanent residence turns into formal citizenship over time. They do not line up one-for-one with the same year's permanent intake.Cohort
A group of people considered together because they entered a program, population, or dataset in the same period.
In this simulator, the permanent cohort means one annual permanent-program intake. The model multiplies the weighted per-migrant fiscal value by that cohort size.Dividend stack
The model's combined benefit score from fiscal mix, GDP lift, education exports, and skills use.
The balance score rises when this stack is stronger than the pressure stack.Education exports
The annual value Australia records from international education activity, including tuition fees and education-related goods and services spending.
TAMM treats this as total sector value across the active student stock, not as revenue generated only by new arrivals in that year.Estimated Resident Population
ERPThe official ABS estimate of people usually resident in Australia at a point in time, regardless of citizenship.
The historical chart uses ERP as the denominator for NOM share because it is available annually and aligns with ABS population accounting. It is not a citizen-only denominator.Family stream
The part of the Permanent Migration Program for partner, parent, child, and other family visas.
The simulator keeps Family stream places in the fiscal mix but does not try to price their social and community value.Fiscal net present value
Fiscal NPVAn estimate of lifetime budget contribution converted into today's dollars. TAMM weights Treasury-style lifetime fiscal values by the skilled-primary, skilled-secondary, and family shares, then multiplies by permanent places.
It helps separate short-term service pressure from long-run tax and spending effects. It is a cohort-level estimate, not a cash receipt in the Budget year.GDP net present value
GDP NPVA present-value estimate of the long-run economic output associated with the permanent cohort.
The simulator uses it as one part of the dividend stack, separate from the fiscal budget effect.Goods and services spending
Education-related spending outside tuition, such as living costs and other goods and services bought by international students.
This is why education exports are an economy-wide sector value rather than a simple per-new-student tuition calculation.Household size assumption
The simplified divisor used to convert people into estimated dwelling demand. The current model uses 2.5 people per dwelling.
Changing this assumption would move the housing-pressure result. It is a transparent simplification, not a claim about every migrant household.Housing Accord run rate
The annualised home-building pace implied by Australia's national housing targets and recent completions data.
The same NOM setting looks very different if the country is completing 175k homes a year versus running closer to 240k.Housing completions
New homes completed in a year, used here as the housing-capacity side of the migration dwelling-demand comparison.
The same migration flow feels very different when home-building is weak versus when completions are close to the national target pace.Migration balance score
A 0-100 index comparing the dividend stack with the pressure stack. Higher is better.
The letter is an A-E rating: A is the strongest balance and E means the settings are overheating.Migration dwelling demand
An estimate of how many dwellings are needed to house a migration flow, calculated here by dividing NOM by an assumed household size.
It translates population movement into the housing-capacity question voters and cities actually feel.Net overseas migration
NOMThe net gain or loss of population through international migration. ABS measures it using the 12/16-month rule: people count when they are in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, less people who leave Australia for 12 months or more.
NOM is broader than the permanent migration program. It can include temporary visa holders who stay long enough, but ordinary short tourist visits do not count.Occupation unit group
A four-digit ANZSCO occupation grouping, such as 2544 Registered Nurses or 2613 Software and Applications Programmers.
Unit groups are detailed enough to show the skilled program's occupation mix, while still being published in stable official tables. In the building-trades chart they work like an occupation-family code.Permanent Migration Program
The annual planning level for permanent visas across Skill, Family, and smaller Special Eligibility categories.
Permanent places shape long-run workforce and fiscal outcomes. They are important, but they are only one part of total migration flows.Permanent resident
PRA non-citizen who holds a permanent visa and can usually live, work, and study in Australia indefinitely, subject to visa and travel-facility rules.
Permanent residents are part of Australia's resident population and most can later apply for citizenship if they meet eligibility requirements.Pressure stack
The model's combined pressure score from housing demand, capital-city load, student arrivals, and total migration volume.
The balance score falls when pressure grows faster than the measurable benefits.Skill stream
Permanent migration places aimed at applicants selected for labour-market, business, investment, regional, or employer-sponsored reasons.
The skill stream is where migration policy most directly tries to lift productivity, tax revenue, and workforce capacity.Skilled-primary applicant
The main applicant in a skilled visa case, as distinct from partners or dependants who are included as secondary applicants.
Treasury modelling assigns very different lifetime fiscal and GDP impacts to primary skilled migrants, secondary skilled migrants, and family-stream migrants.Skilled-primary share
The share of the permanent cohort treated as main skilled applicants rather than secondary skilled applicants or Family stream migrants.
Raising this share lifts the model's fiscal and GDP dividend because Treasury-style estimates are strongest for skilled-primary migrants.Skilled-secondary applicant
A partner or dependant included in a skilled visa case, rather than the main applicant selected for their occupation or skills.
Secondary applicants can be economically important, but the model assigns them a different average fiscal and GDP profile from skilled-primary applicants.Skills recognition lag
The time it takes for a migrant's overseas qualification, licence, or occupation-specific experience to be recognised and used in Australia.
Shorter recognition lags mean the same migration intake can contribute sooner, especially in licensed trades, health, engineering, and technical roles.Student arrivals pressure
The simulator's proxy for new temporary-student arrivals that may add demand for housing, services, and education capacity.
It is not the same as the total number of international students in Australia. It is a flow lever used to stress-test pressure.Student visa holder
A person holding a visa that permits study in Australia, usually subclass 500 for the main student visa.
Student visa holders can affect NOM if their actual stay meets the usual-residence rule, but the visa category alone does not determine NOM.Temporary visa
A visa that allows a person to stay in Australia for a limited purpose or period, such as study, temporary work, visitor travel, working holiday activity, or bridging status.
Temporary visas do not automatically equal NOM. They affect NOM only when the person's actual stay meets the 12/16-month usual-residence rule.Tuition fees
The part of international education export income paid for education services such as courses and enrolments.
The baseline education export figure separates tuition from goods and services so the total is not mistaken for direct tuition revenue only.Visitor or tourist movement
Short-term travel to Australia for tourism, visiting family, or business visitor purposes.
Tourists are usually out of NOM because short visits do not meet the 12/16-month residence rule. The simulator treats NOM as a residence-flow measure, not a border-crossing count.