Sources

Sources behind the simulator.

These public datasets, reports, methodology notes, and academic papers support the simulator and charts. TAMM is intentionally simplified; this page keeps the evidence trail in one place.

Evidence base

36 references covering migration flows, fiscal modelling, housing supply, education exports, occupations, citizenship, and visa-transition research.

ABS Overseas Migration methodology, 2024-25

Defines NOM using the 12/16-month usual-residence rule, rather than traveller-declared intention.

ABS National, state and territory population, September 2025

Estimated Resident Population of 27,724,744 at 30 September 2025, with annual NOM of 311k.

ABS National, state and territory population, June 2025

Estimated Resident Population of 27,614,411 at 30 June 2025, annual growth of 420.1k, and annual NOM of 305.6k.

Budget Paper No. 3 2026-27

NOM forecasts of 295k in 2025-26, 245k in 2026-27, and 225k from 2027-28.

Budget Paper No. 2 2026-27

185k permanent places, over 70% Skill stream, and skills recognition reforms.

Home Affairs Permanent Migration Program planning levels, 2026-27

Sets the 2026-27 permanent Migration Program at 185k places, with about a 70:30 Skilled/Family split and a stated priority for onshore migrants.

ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25

306k NOM, 568k arrivals, 263k departures, 157k temporary-student arrivals, and a national migrant-arrivals sex ratio of 98.

ABS Australia's population by country of birth, June 2025

Counts 8.8 million overseas-born residents, 18.8 million Australian-born residents, and an overseas-born share of 32.0%.

ABS Regional Population 2024-25

Capital city populations at 30 June 2025, including Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.

Services Australia, living outside Australia

Australian Government guidance notes around one million Australians living and working overseas; TAMM treats this as a broad estimate, not a live register.

2021 Intergenerational Report

Lifetime GDP and fiscal impacts by permanent migrant stream.

National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, March 2026

219k homes completed over five Accord quarters.

HIA skilled trades shortage, February 2025

Cites an estimated need for 83k additional workers in key residential construction trades to meet the Housing Accord target.

Jobs and Skills Australia 2025 Occupation Shortage List

Finds nearly half of trade roles remain in shortage, with construction among the areas where gaps persist.

ABS international students in balance of payments

Education-related travel exports were an annual $53.6B in 2024-25.

Department of Education export income, 2024-25

Confirms international education was worth $53.6B, split into $29.9B goods and services and $23.5B tuition fees.

Department of Education international student monthly summary, January 2026

Counts 551,717 international students studying in Australia and 565,601 enrolments in January 2026.

Home Affairs temporary visa holders in Australia, April 2026

BP0019 stock snapshot for temporary entrants and New Zealand citizens present in Australia at 30 April 2026. The temporary stock charts use student, temporary graduate, temporary skilled, visitor, bridging, working holiday, and Special Category visa-holder counts from this workbook.

Home Affairs Temporary Work (skilled) visa program, March 2026

BP0014 Temporary Resident (skilled) visas granted report as at 31 March 2026. The temporary skilled deep-dive charts and Europe-only Trades page use primary-grant occupation cuts and keep partial-year periods separate from full financial years.

Home Affairs permanent resident overseas travel

Explains that permanent residents do not have an automatic right to return from overseas; re-entry depends on a valid travel facility or Resident Return visa.

Home Affairs Australia's Migration Trends 2024-25

Migration Program outcomes from 2004-05 to 2024-25, plus 2024-25 citizenship conferrals.

Review of the Migration System, 2023

Explains temporary-to-permanent pathways and includes a rounded 2021 visa and citizenship-status population chart used for citizen/PR benchmark context.

Home Affairs 2024-25 Migration Program Report

Skill-stream outcome of 132,148 places, occupation-unit tables for Skill-stream primary applicants, and the 2024-25 onshore/offshore location split at time of application.

Home Affairs Permanent Migration Program outcome snapshot

Pivot data for 2015-16 to 2024-25. The occupation and building-trades charts use 2024-25 Skill-stream primary applicants.

Home Affairs PR migration and child outcome pivot workbook, June 2025

BP0068-style permanent-residence pivot workbook used with the temporary skilled grants workbook to build the Europe-only 22-unit-group Trades page. The page reports primary applicants and labels its adjusted people estimate as Estimated Unique Arrivals.

Home Affairs Australian citizenship statistics

Confirms 165,193 people became Australian citizens by conferral in 2024-25.

Home Affairs citizenship by conferral eligibility

Explains that citizenship by conferral requires permanent residence or eligible New Zealand SCV status, residence eligibility, good character, and usually a citizenship test.

Home Affairs citizenship residence calculator

Summarises the general residence requirement: four years on a valid visa, the last 12 months as a permanent resident or eligible SCV holder, and absence limits.

Home Affairs permanent residency entitlements

Explains that permanent residents can generally remain in Australia indefinitely, work and study, enrol in Medicare, sponsor eligible relatives, and apply for citizenship if eligible.

Home Affairs travel facilitation letter request

Confirms that permanent and provisional visa grant letters can include a specified first-entry arrival date.

Home Affairs Pacific Engagement visa first-entry guidance

Example offshore permanent resident visa guidance stating that first entry is generally 12 months from the date of visa grant.

Wilson et al. 2025, proof-of-concept Australian migration system model

Academic multistate model showing why NOM, temporary visas, permanent residence, citizenship, and onshore visa switching should be treated as an interconnected system. Its scenario numbers use a 2021 model base and are not TAMM's current snapshot baselines.