Explainer
Why look at Net Overseas Migration as a share of population?
Explains why NOM divided by Australia's resident population can be a useful pressure signal, and why it is not the same as total population growth.
NOM as a share of population shows the scale of overseas migration relative to the country absorbing it. For example, a NOM of about 306,000 against a population of about 27.6 million is roughly 1.1% of the resident population.
The same NOM number feels different in different countries.
A net migration gain of 300,000 people is not the same pressure signal in a country of 10 million as it is in a country of 100 million. Dividing NOM by resident population helps scale the debate.
For Australia, NOM has often been large relative to population because the country uses migration as a major part of labour-force, education, and demographic strategy.
It is useful, but not complete.
NOM share is not total population growth. Total growth also includes natural increase: births minus deaths. It also does not show where people settle, what housing exists, or what skills arrive.
TAMM treats NOM share as a pressure signal, then adds the missing context: housing delivery, capital-city concentration, skills mix, student flows, and recognition lag.
Related questions
Is there one healthy NOM percentage?
No single number works in every context. A higher share can be manageable if housing, infrastructure, and labour-market use keep pace; a lower share can still feel difficult if capacity is already tight.
Is NOM share the same as annual population growth?
No. NOM share only captures net overseas migration relative to population. Annual population growth also includes natural increase.
Sources
- ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25 306k NOM, 568k arrivals, 263k departures, 157k temporary-student arrivals, and a national migrant-arrivals sex ratio of 98.
- ABS National, state and territory population, June 2025 Estimated Resident Population of 27,614,411 at 30 June 2025, annual growth of 420.1k, and annual NOM of 305.6k.
- ABS National, state and territory population, September 2025 Estimated Resident Population of 27,724,744 at 30 September 2025, with annual NOM of 311k.
- Budget Paper No. 3 2026-27 NOM forecasts of 295k in 2025-26, 245k in 2026-27, and 225k from 2027-28.
- McDonald 2024, Understanding Australian Migration Research note explaining the relationship between NOM, temporary migration, permanent migration, ageing, skill selection, and the post-COVID migration surge.
The full evidence trail is on the Sources page.