Explainer
What is the difference between Net Overseas Migration and migrant arrivals?
Explains why Australian NOM is not the same as migrant arrivals, passenger movements, or the number of new people entering Australia.
Migrant arrivals count people who enter Australia and meet the migration residence rule. Net Overseas Migration subtracts migrant departures from migrant arrivals. NOM is the net population change from overseas migration, not the total number of people arriving.
The 2024-25 numbers show the difference.
In 2024-25, the ABS recorded about 568,000 migrant arrivals and 263,000 migrant departures. The resulting NOM was about 306,000. Those are related numbers, but they answer different questions.
Arrivals tell you about inflow. Departures tell you about outflow. NOM tells you the net durable addition to the resident population.
Why policy debates often blur them.
Housing and infrastructure debates often focus on NOM because it is the final population-pressure number. But arrivals matter too, because they show the size of the intake and the amount of churn underneath the net figure.
A lower NOM can still involve many arrivals if many people also leave. A higher NOM can happen when arrivals rise, departures fall, or both.
Related questions
Is NOM the same as border crossings?
No. Border crossings include many short-term movements. NOM applies the residence rule and then nets arrivals against departures.
Why does TAMM use NOM instead of arrivals?
The simulator is mainly modelling population pressure, so the net durable addition to the resident population is the more useful starting point.
Sources
- ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25 306k NOM, 568k arrivals, 263k departures, 157k temporary-student arrivals, and a national migrant-arrivals sex ratio of 98.
- ABS Overseas Migration methodology, 2024-25 Defines NOM using the 12/16-month usual-residence rule, rather than traveller-declared intention.
- ABS National, state and territory population, June 2025 Estimated Resident Population of 27,614,411 at 30 June 2025, annual growth of 420.1k, and annual NOM of 305.6k.
The full evidence trail is on the Sources page.