Explainer
Does Net Overseas Migration include tourists?
Clear answer on whether Australian Net Overseas Migration includes tourists, short visits, and temporary visa holders.
No. Net Overseas Migration does not include short tourist visits. ABS NOM counts people who are added to, or removed from, Australia's usually resident population under the 12/16-month rule.
The rule is about usual residence, not border crossings.
NOM is not a count of everyone who crosses the border. It is a population measure. The ABS looks at whether a person is in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, or away from Australia for long enough to stop being counted as usually resident.
That means a tourist who comes for a few weeks does not count. A student, temporary skilled worker, working holiday maker, or returning Australian can count if their movement changes the usually resident population.
Why this matters for the model.
TAMM uses NOM as the main population-pressure lever because it captures durable residence change. It is closer to housing and service demand than raw passenger arrivals, but it is still a simplified net flow.
The word 'net' matters. NOM subtracts migrant departures from migrant arrivals, so it can hide a large amount of churn underneath the final number.
Related questions
Can a temporary visa holder count in NOM?
Yes. A temporary visa holder can count if they meet the ABS residence rule. Temporary status and NOM status are different concepts.
Does a short holiday count in NOM?
No. A normal short tourist visit does not add someone to Australia's usually resident population.
Sources
- ABS Overseas Migration methodology, 2024-25 Defines NOM using the 12/16-month usual-residence rule, rather than traveller-declared intention.
- ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25 306k NOM, 568k arrivals, 263k departures, 157k temporary-student arrivals, and a national migrant-arrivals sex ratio of 98.
The full evidence trail is on the Sources page.